Since the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Japan have beaten Germany twice, beaten Brazil, and beaten England. All four of those nations are ranked above them in the FIFA World Rankings. All four of those nations were considered far superior to Japan when the fixtures were played.
Japan did not care about the rankings.
Currently ranked 18th in the world, the Samurai Blue have beaten Germany twice, Brazil and England — all above them in the FIFA World Rankings and usually regarded among the World Cup favourites — since 2022.
This is not a team that loses to superior opposition because they are supposed to. This is a team that has been quietly building one of Asia's great footballing generations, sending player after player to the top leagues in Europe, and developing an identity under Hajime Moriyasu that the entire continent of Asia can be proud of.
The question for 2026 is whether that identity is finally enough to break through to the quarter-final — a stage Japan have never reached.
The Recent Form
The case for Japan as a genuine dark horse does not require imagination. It requires reading the results.
Japan trailed Brazil 2–0 at halftime on October 14, 2025 at Tokyo Stadium. They came back to win 3–2, earning their first ever victory over Brazil. Takumi Minamino started the comeback. Keito Nakamura levelled it. Ayase Ueda finished it with a header.
Then in March 2026, Japan travelled to Scotland and England — both World Cup participants — and beat both. Back-to-back away wins against Scotland and England in the final international fixtures before the tournament squad was named sent a clear signal.
Moriyasu has a tremendous record when it comes to seeing off big-name opposition and is keen that his team be seen more as dark horses than underdogs on the world stage.
The Manager: Hajime Moriyasu
Moriyasu returns for his second World Cup at the helm. In 2022, he masterminded victories over Germany and Spain in the group stage — arguably the two biggest upsets of that tournament — before Japan were eliminated by Croatia on penalties in the Round of 16.
His system — a 3-4-3 or 4-3-3 built around high pressing, rapid transitions, and technically gifted wide players — suits the squad perfectly. Coach Moriyasu has regularly deployed a three-at-the-back system with Japan and is expected to continue with a similar setup at the World Cup.
His greatest skill is managing moments. When Japan go 2–0 down — as they did against Germany in 2022, against Brazil in 2025 — the team does not collapse. They press higher, take risks, and find a way back. That mental composure is Moriyasu's most important coaching achievement.
The Group: Manageable but Not Easy
Japan were drawn into Group F alongside Croatia, Morocco, and Ecuador.
Japan's match schedule:
- June 15: Japan vs. Croatia — Seattle (Lumen Field)
- June 20: Japan vs. Morocco — Seattle (Lumen Field)
- June 25: Japan vs. Ecuador — Houston (NRG Stadium)
Croatia are the most dangerous opponent — 2022 semi-finalists, experienced in knockout football, with Modrić still pulling strings. Morocco are a top-10 team that reached the 2022 semi-final. Ecuador are competitive.
This is not a group Japan will coast through. But they have beaten better teams than Croatia, Morocco and Ecuador in the past two years. A second-place finish is entirely achievable. If they can get a result in Seattle against Croatia, the path opens significantly.
The Key Players
Takefusa Kubo — The Star
Club: Real Sociedad | Age: 24
Kubo and Mitoma will be Japan's main attacking threats, both among the most lethal wingers in Europe, capable of making a difference on their own.
Kubo is Japan's most technically gifted player. His dribbling, his ability to create from nothing, and his composure in decisive moments make him the player opponents fear most. Kubo feels like Japan's engine and escape hatch at the same time — he created Japan's opener against Bahrain with a final pass that released Kamada into a one-on-one, then finished the match himself in the 87th minute.
Kaoru Mitoma — The Destroyer
Club: Brighton | Age: 27
If Kubo is the creator, Mitoma is the destroyer. His pace, his directness in one-on-one situations, and his ability to take on defenders in tight spaces make him one of the most dangerous wide players at the tournament. Premier League defenses punish hesitation. That environment taught Mitoma to pick faster lines, accept contact, and keep his feet under pressure.
Against Croatia's experienced defensive line, Mitoma's ability to isolate and beat his man could be decisive.
Wataru Endo — The Captain
Club: Liverpool | Age: 31
Wataru Endo heads up a squad with plenty of experience. Liverpool's defensive midfielder is Japan's most experienced player and organises everything from the centre of the pitch. His ability to protect the defence, read the game, and distribute quickly gives Japan's attacking players the freedom to express themselves.
Daichi Kamada — The Late Runner
Club: Crystal Palace
Kamada is Japan's most effective player arriving late from midfield. His ability to time his runs, combine with Kubo and Mitoma, and finish under pressure gives Japan an attacking option that is extremely difficult to track.
Ritsu Doan — The Impact Player
Club: Eintracht Frankfurt
Doan starred on the wing against England at Wembley and had a huge impact at World Cup 2022, scoring the equalising goals against both Germany and Spain off the bench. His ability to change matches as a substitute — or from the start — gives Moriyasu a dangerous option at all times.
Keito Nakamura — The Emerging Striker
Age: 23
Since making his debut in 2023, Nakamura has consistently found the back of the net for the Asian side, scoring 10 goals in 22 caps. He scored in Japan's comeback win over Brazil and gives Moriyasu a clinical option to partner with Ueda up front.
Japan's World Cup History — The Round of 16 Ceiling
| Year | Stage | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Quarter-final | Lost to Turkey (co-hosts) |
| 2006 | Group stage | Eliminated |
| 2010 | Round of 16 | Lost to Paraguay on penalties |
| 2014 | Group stage | Eliminated |
| 2018 | Round of 16 | Lost to Belgium 3–2 |
| 2022 | Round of 16 | Lost to Croatia on penalties |
Japan have reached the Round of 16 in three of the last four World Cups. They have never won a knockout match at the tournament since reaching the quarter-final as co-hosts in 2002. Breaking that ceiling — winning a Round of 32 match and then a Round of 16 match — is the clear goal for 2026.
The penalties against Croatia in 2022 are the most painful recent memory. Japan were level at 1–1 after extra time and lost 3–1 in the shootout. Four years on, the squad knows exactly how close they came — and the motivation to go further is fierce.
Why Japan Can Reach the Quarter-Final
The squad is Europe-based and tournament-hardened. Almost every player in Japan's likely starting XI competes in one of Europe's top five leagues. The technical quality, the pressing intensity, and the tactical sophistication are not typical of an Asian team.
They beat big opponents regularly. Germany, Spain, Brazil, England — these are not flukes. Japan have developed a consistent ability to compete against elite opposition.
Moriyasu knows how to win knockout football. His substitution patterns, his reading of matches in real time, and his ability to set up a team that frustrates superior opponents are among the best tactical qualities at the tournament.
The draw is challenging but not impossible. Croatia, Morocco, Ecuador — all three are beatable. A second-place finish puts Japan in the knockout rounds, where their ability to perform as underdogs has been proven repeatedly.
The Honest Assessment
Japan's odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +8000 — an implied probability of about 1%. Japan sit as the AFC standard-bearer in the outright market, priced ahead of all other Asian sides.
The realistic ceiling for Japan is the quarter-final. Breaking that ceiling in North America with the most complete generation in Japan's history — Kubo, Mitoma, Endo — is the realistic goal and would be a landmark Asian achievement.
A semi-final would require beating teams of the calibre of Spain or France in the knockout rounds — possible but unlikely.
What is certain: Japan will not simply turn up, play three matches, and go home. They will compete. They will press. They will create upsets. And if Kubo and Mitoma are at their best, they will make at least one nation that arrived in North America with far greater expectations regret underestimating the Samurai Blue.
Japan's Group F Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 15 | Croatia | Lumen Field, Seattle | TBD |
| June 20 | Morocco | Lumen Field, Seattle | TBD |
| June 25 | Ecuador | NRG Stadium, Houston | TBD |
Follow Japan's full campaign live at WC2026 Stats.