The World Cup produces upsets. It always has. It always will.
The beauty of the tournament — the thing that makes it different from club football, from leagues, from routine fixtures — is that on a single afternoon, in a stadium filled with 90,000 people, the order of things can be completely reversed. The best team in the world can lose to a nation ranked 51st. A defending champion can be humiliated on home soil. A country of 150,000 people can beat a European superpower.
In 2026, with 48 teams and 104 matches, the opportunities for upsets are greater than at any previous tournament. The group stage includes Cape Verde vs Spain, Curaçao vs Germany, Jordan vs Argentina, and Uzbekistan vs Portugal. Any of those could produce the next entry on this list.
Before June 11, here are the five greatest upsets in World Cup history — and what they tell us about what might happen this summer.
1. Brazil 1–7 Germany (2014) — The Mineirazo
Stage: Semi-final | July 8, 2014 | Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte
Not an upset in the traditional sense — Germany were serious contenders. But the scale of what happened at the Mineirão on July 8, 2014 was so far beyond any reasonable expectation that it stands alone in football history.
Brazil were the host nation. They had not lost a competitive match at home in 39 years. They were playing in a World Cup semi-final on their own soil, with 60,000 fans who had waited a generation for this moment.
Germany scored in the 11th minute. Then the 23rd. The 24th. The 26th. The 29th. Five goals in 18 minutes. By half-time it was 5–0. The Brazilian players were weeping on the pitch. The fans were silent.
Germany added two more in the second half. Brazil scored once in consolation in the 90th minute. Final score: 1–7.
It remains the largest margin of victory in a World Cup semi-final. It remains the most traumatic result in the history of Brazilian football. In Brazil, it is known simply as the Mineirazo — a word that needs no translation.
What it means for 2026: Brazil arrive under Ancelotti carrying this scar. The shadow of 2014 is one of the reasons the appointment of a world-class manager was so important — not just tactically, but psychologically.
2. Saudi Arabia 2–1 Argentina (2022) — The Greatest Modern Upset
Stage: Group stage | November 22, 2022 | Lusail Stadium, Qatar
Argentina were 36 matches unbeaten. They were the reigning Copa América champions. Lionel Messi had scored from the penalty spot in the opening minutes. Saudi Arabia were ranked 51st in the world.
In the second half, Saudi Arabia's offside trap — which had kept disallowing Argentina goals in the first half — held perfectly, and the comeback began. Saleh Al-Shehri equalised. Then Salem Al-Dawsari struck a curling, left-footed shot into the top corner. Argentina's players looked shell-shocked. The Saudi bench erupted.
Argentina had plenty of time to respond but barely threatened. Saudi Arabia won 2–1. It remains the biggest upset in modern World Cup history.
What makes this extraordinary: Argentina were not a weak team in bad form. They were arguably the best team in the world at that point. And they lost to a nation that had never previously won a World Cup group stage match against a South American opponent.
What it means for 2026: Argentina are defending champions. They begin their campaign against Algeria in Kansas City on June 16. Every team that faces them will have studied November 22, 2022.
3. Senegal 1–0 France (2002) — The Champions Fall
Stage: Group stage | May 31, 2002 | Seoul World Cup Stadium
France came into the 2002 World Cup as defending champions, having won in 1998, and were considered one of the strongest squads ever assembled. Zinedine Zidane, Thierry Henry, Patrick Vieira — a generation of genuinely world-class players.
Senegal were making their World Cup debut.
Papa Bouba Diop scored with a first-half strike. France could not respond. The defending champions lost their opening match to a nation playing its first ever World Cup game. France went on to crash out in the group stage without scoring a single goal — Zidane was injured and barely played, Henry was goalless.
The scenes of Senegalese fans — many of them living in France — celebrating in the streets of Paris remain one of the most vivid images in World Cup history.
What it means for 2026: France are tournament favourites. They open Group I against Senegal on June 16 in New York. The symmetry is extraordinary. Senegal have a chance to repeat 2002, twenty-four years later, against the same opponent, in the same context.
4. USA 1–0 England (1950) — The Original Shock
Stage: Group stage | June 29, 1950 | Independência Stadium, Belo Horizonte
England entered the 1950 World Cup as heavy favourites. They were the inventors of football. They had never played in a World Cup before — they had previously refused to enter, considering themselves above the competition. This was their debut, and they expected to win it.
Their opponents were the United States — a team of amateur and semi-professional players that had conceded 45 goals in their previous seven matches. One of their players was an accounting student who washed dishes at a restaurant. His name was Joe Gaetjens.
Gaetjens scored the only goal of the match in the 37th minute, heading in a deflected shot. England attacked for the remaining hour but could not equalise. The final whistle confirmed one of the greatest shocks in sporting history.
The result was so unbelievable that several British newspapers initially assumed the scoreline was a misprint — that the result must have been USA 1–10 England. When they realised it was correct, the coverage was remarkably muted. The magnitude of the upset was not fully appreciated for decades.
England never recovered in that tournament and went home without advancing from the group stage.
What it means for 2026: England play their opening match on June 17 against Croatia — not the USA. But the lesson of 1950 resonates: no team can afford to underestimate their opponents at this tournament.
5. North Korea 1–0 Italy (1966) — When Nobody Was Watching
Stage: Group stage | July 19, 1966 | Ayresome Park, Middlesbrough
Italy were European royalty. North Korea were an unknown quantity — most of the world had never seen them play, and barely anyone expected them to be competitive.
The match in Middlesbrough on July 19, 1966 changed football's understanding of what was possible. Italy lost their captain to injury early on with no substitutes permitted. North Korea's Pak Doo-ik scored the only goal after 42 minutes. Italy could not respond.
Italy were eliminated in the group stage. The Italian players were pelted with rotten tomatoes and vegetables when they returned home. North Korea advanced to the quarter-finals, where they led Portugal 3–0 before Eusébio scored four goals to win the match 5–3 — perhaps the greatest comeback in World Cup knockout history.
The lasting legacy: North Korea at the 1966 World Cup remains the gold standard for unexpected tournament runs. A nation nobody had seen play, reaching the quarter-final of a World Cup in England, against Portugal. No story at 2026 — not even Cape Verde or Curaçao — would surpass it.
What History Tells Us About 2026
These five upsets share common threads that apply directly to the 2026 tournament.
Complacency is fatal. France in 2002 and England in 1950 both underestimated their opponents. The expanded format — with 48 teams including debut nations — creates more opportunities for the underdog than any previous tournament.
Anything can happen in a single match. Saudi Arabia beating Argentina required one extraordinary second half. North Korea beating Italy required one goal from an unknown player. The World Cup does not run over seasons — it runs over 90 minutes, repeated seven times.
Debut nations have nothing to lose. Senegal in 2002 were playing their first World Cup match. North Korea in 1966 were unknown. The teams with nothing to lose frequently produce the most dangerous football.
The 48-team format increases the probability. With 16 more teams than 2022, with weaker nations in groups alongside giants, the number of potential upset opportunities in the group stage alone is historically high.
The next great World Cup shock is coming. It always does. In 2026 it might be Cape Verde against Spain, Curaçao against Germany, Jordan against Argentina, or something nobody has considered.
Be watching on June 11.
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