There is a photograph from December 18, 2022.
Lionel Messi, draped in a traditional Qatari bisht cloak over his Argentina kit, lifting the World Cup trophy at the Lusail Stadium. Around him, confetti and tears. In the background, the faces of a nation that had waited 36 years for this moment.
For Messi, it was the final piece of a career that needed no further justification. For Argentina, it was the crowning achievement of a golden era under Lionel Scaloni.
Now, three and a half years later, Argentina arrive at the 2026 World Cup with a chance to do something only two nations in history have done — win back-to-back World Cups.
And at the centre of everything: a 38-year-old man who still hasn't quite decided if he'll play.
The Messi Question
No tournament preview of Argentina 2026 can begin anywhere else.
As of April 2026, Lionel Messi has not confirmed he will play. Last October, he told reporters he would assess his situation "day-to-day." In March, coach Scaloni said: "I will do everything I can to make sure he is there. I believe that, for the sake of football, he has to be there. But it's not me who decides. It's up to him."
Messi was named in Argentina's squad for March friendlies against Mauritania and Zambia. He came on as a substitute against Mauritania. He looked fit. His touch remained extraordinary. But the question persists — not whether he has the ability to play at a World Cup, but whether he has the physical reserves to compete across seven matches over 39 days.
At 38, the calculus is different. At 38, every decision carries the weight of legacy.
What we know: Messi is in Scaloni's plans. He has kept the door open. The tournament begins in the city where he plays his club football — the United States. Every indication suggests he will be there for Argentina's opener in Kansas City on June 16.
Whether he features from the start, whether he is managed carefully and used in decisive moments, whether he decides he cannot contribute at the level he demands of himself — these are the questions that will define Argentina's tournament narrative before a single ball is kicked.
The Group: Favourable
Argentina were drawn into Group J — one of the most favourable groups any of the top seeds received.
Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan
Argentina's match schedule:
- June 16: Argentina vs. Algeria — Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City (9 PM ET)
- June 22: Argentina vs. Austria — AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX (1 PM ET)
- June 27: Jordan vs. Argentina — AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX (10 PM ET)
Algeria qualified for their first World Cup since 2014. Austria return after a 28-year absence. Jordan are making their World Cup debut. On paper, Argentina should win all three matches and top the group comfortably.
The danger — as Argentina know from 2018, when they drew with Iceland and nearly went out in the group stage as defending champions — is complacency. The expanded format and the presence of weaker opponents can create the opposite problem: matches that are won without fluency, without momentum, without the psychological edge that a tight win over a genuine rival provides.
The Manager: Lionel Scaloni
Scaloni was appointed as Argentina's interim manager in 2018 and has since delivered the most successful period in Argentine football history: Copa América 2021, World Cup 2022, Copa América 2024. Three major trophies in four years. No Argentina manager has won more.
His system — a fluid 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 hybrid that prioritises collective pressing, rapid transitions, and the ability to switch between controlling tempo and hitting teams on the counter — was perfected in Qatar. The core of that squad is still available.
If he wins the 2026 World Cup, Scaloni becomes the first manager to win back-to-back World Cups since Italy's Vittorio Pozzo in 1934 and 1938.
The Key Players
Lionel Messi — The Question and the Answer
Club: Inter Miami | Age: 38
If he plays, he is still capable of winning matches. His vision, his passing range, and his ability to produce decisive moments in the most pressure-filled situations remain extraordinary. He scored 8 goals in CONMEBOL qualifying. He is Argentina's all-time leading scorer with 115 goals.
Whether he plays 90 minutes or 30, whether he starts every game or comes off the bench in knockout matches, his presence elevates the entire squad.
Julián Álvarez — The Engine
Club: Atlético Madrid | Age: 25
The most underrated player on this list. Álvarez was extraordinary at the 2022 World Cup — four goals, tireless movement, a semi-final performance against Croatia that was one of the tournament's finest individual displays. Since then, he has scored 29 goals in his debut season at Atlético Madrid.
At 25, he has the energy, the technical quality, and the tactical intelligence to carry the attacking load regardless of Messi's involvement. Argentina's depth in attack begins with Álvarez.
Lautaro Martínez — The Striker
Club: Inter Milan | Age: 27
Argentina's most natural number nine. Clinical inside the box, strong in the air, capable of holding the ball up and linking with midfielders. His partnership with Álvarez — and potentially Messi — gives Argentina the most dangerous attacking combination of any team in the tournament.
Emiliano Martínez — The Wall
Club: Aston Villa
One of the world's best goalkeepers and the hero of the 2022 World Cup — his penalty shootout heroics against the Netherlands and France were decisive in Argentina's title win. His presence between the posts gives Argentina a last line of defence that tournament football repeatedly rewards.
His psychological impact on penalty shootouts — combining genuine quality with deliberate gamesmanship — makes him uniquely dangerous in knockout football.
Alexis Mac Allister & Enzo Fernández — The Midfield
Clubs: Liverpool & Chelsea
The engine of Argentina's system. Mac Allister's technical quality and pressing intensity, Fernández's athleticism and forward runs, Rodrigo De Paul's leadership and grit — this midfield trio gives Argentina the platform to play.
The Impossible Challenge
No team has won back-to-back World Cups since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. The only other nation to do it was Italy in 1934 and 1938.
The reasons are structural as much as anything else. Defending champions face extra pressure. Squads age. The motivation to reach that same peak is harder to find the second time. Opponents study you more carefully. The magic of a first title is almost impossible to recreate.
Argentina know this. Scaloni knows this. Messi knows this.
They are also the best-placed team in the tournament to try. The squad is largely intact. The system is established and proven. The confidence from Qatar runs deep. And they have the defending champion's bracket advantage — seeded to avoid the other top seeds until the semi-finals.
Argentina's World Cup History
| Year | Stage | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1978 | Champion | Beat Netherlands 3–1 aet 🏆 |
| 1982 | Group stage | Eliminated |
| 1986 | Champion | Beat West Germany 3–2 🏆 |
| 1990 | Runner-up | Lost final to West Germany |
| 1994 | Round of 16 | Lost to Romania |
| 1998 | Quarter-final | Lost to Netherlands |
| 2002 | Group stage | Eliminated |
| 2006 | Quarter-final | Lost to Germany on penalties |
| 2010 | Quarter-final | Lost to Germany |
| 2014 | Runner-up | Lost final to Germany aet |
| 2018 | Round of 16 | Lost to France |
| 2022 | Champion | Beat France 4–2 on penalties 🏆 |
The Honest Assessment
Argentina are priced at +800 — an implied probability of roughly 11%. They are the fifth-favourite behind Spain, France, England, and Brazil.
That is probably slightly harsh. They have the defending champion's experience, a proven system, world-class players in every position, and a manager who has already won the tournament once.
The realistic ceiling is the semi-final or final. If Messi is fit and performing, if Álvarez and Lautaro are on form, if Emiliano Martínez makes his saves — Argentina can beat any team in the world.
The question is not whether they are capable. The question is whether the conditions align. Whether Messi decides. Whether the ageing squad sustains across seven matches. Whether lightning strikes twice.
In football, it occasionally does.
Argentina's Group J Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 16 | Algeria | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City | 9:00 PM |
| June 22 | Austria | AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX | 1:00 PM |
| June 27 | Jordan | AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX | 10:00 PM |
Follow Argentina's full campaign live at WC2026 Stats.